How to Identify NFL Punt Plays in DFS

What Is a Punt Play?

A punt play is a low-salary player with an unexpectedly high projection or value metric. The term comes from football, where you "punt" away a possession to move the ball downfield. In DFS, you"re punting on a position or salary range to free up capital for studs elsewhere.

Punt plays are critical for tournament success because they allow you to build a balanced lineup. Instead of overloading on expensive studs, you can mix punts with mid-level value to create a lineup with higher floor and ceiling.

Why Punts Matter in Tournaments

In daily fantasy football, salary cap management is everything. On FanDuel, you have $60K to spend on 9 players. On DraftKings, it's $50K. If you spend $8K on every position, you'll have a mediocre lineup with no studs.

Successful tournament players use punts strategically. By allocating salary to punts in certain positions, you free up $6-8K to spend on elite talent in other positions. This creates lineups with:

• •High floor: Multiple reliable, predictable players
• •Ceiling upside: One or two elite guys with 40+ point upside
• •Leverage: Punts are often lower ownership than mid-tier players

The Punt Play Framework

To identify a good punt play, you need to evaluate three metrics:

1. Value (Projection / Salary)

Value is the most important metric for punts. A good punt has a value ratio above 0.25 (projection in points / salary in thousands).

Example: A player projected for 12 points at $4,000 has a value of 3.0x. That's a legitimate punt. A player projected for 8 points at $4,000 has a value of 2.0x. That's a fade.

2. Floor (Downside Protection)

A good punt has a reasonable floor. If a cheap player has a ceiling of 25 points but a floor of 2 points, they're risky. You want punts with at least a 6-8 point floor so your lineup doesn't completely bust.

Look for consistency in the player's recent stats. If they've scored 10+ points in 3 of the last 4 weeks, they're a safer punt than someone who's gone 25 one week and 2 points the next.

3. Ceiling (Upside Potential)

Punts should have legitimate ceiling upside. If a player is cheap because they're in a time-share or competing for targets, there needs to be a path to 25+ points if things break right.

Evaluating ceiling means looking at: snap counts, red zone opportunities, Vegas game totals, and opponent defense matchups.

Position-Specific Punt Strategies

Running Back (RB) Punts

RB punts are among the most profitable because backup RBs often have significant snap count upside. Look for:

• •Backs in a time-share that could take over if the starter is limited
• •Teams facing bad run defenses (good setup for volume)
• •Backs projected for positive game scripts (team will run in blowouts)

Wide Receiver (WR) Punts

WR punts are trickier because they're dependent on target share. Good WR punts are:

• •Third receivers in pass-heavy game scripts with high game totals
• •Slot receivers with high snap count percentages
• •Players against poor defenses (secondary injuries, bad rankings)

Tight End (TE) & Defense (DST) Punts

TEs and DST are naturally punty positions, so you're often selecting the cheapest option with legitimate upside:

• •TE: Red zone touchdowns are volatile. Punt on TEs in high-scoring games where they could score a TD or two
• •DST: Punt on defenses against bad offenses or those with injury-depleted secondaries

Red Flags: When NOT to Punt

Just because someone is cheap doesn't make them a good punt. Avoid:

• •Players in clear time-shares with no path to volume
• •Injured players (even if they're listed as "probable")
• •Players facing elite defenses (cornerback shutdown corners, ranked #1 run defense)
• •Punts in negative game scripts (team trailing significantly by half)
• •Players with a recent decline in snap counts or targets

Real-World Example

Let's say it's Week 8, and you're building a FanDuel lineup. Justin Jefferson ($9,000) is the obvious WR play, but that leaves you little salary elsewhere.

Instead, you could:

• •Spend $4,500 on a backup RB in a time-share facing a bad run defense
• •Spend $3,500 on a slot WR with high snap count in a high-scoring game total
• •Spend $2,500 on a budget QB with 25+ point ceiling

This frees up $12K+ to spend on studs (Jefferson, a $8K RB, a $6K TE), creating a balanced lineup with both floor and ceiling.

Key Takeaways

• •Punt plays free up salary for studs and are essential for tournament lineups
• •Value (points per $1K salary) is the primary metric for punt identification
• •Good punts have solid floor (6-8 pts) and legitimate ceiling upside (25+ pts)
• •Position matters: RB punts are easier; WR punts require target share; TE/DST are naturally cheap
• •Always consider: snap counts, game script, matchups, and injury risk

Next Steps

Now that you understand how to identify punt plays, the next skill is building balanced lineups. Once you have a stable of quality punts identified, you can focus your studs in positions where you have the highest conviction.

TLDR Fantasy automates this process. Our algorithm identifies punts, values, and leverage plays for you—so you can build better lineups in minutes instead of hours.